Bancos centrales

• Incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting in early December is in line with the Governing Council's baseline scenario of ongoing, but moderate, growth of the euro area economy.

• In particular, the weakness in the manufacturing sector remains a drag on euro area growth momentum.

• At the same time, ongoing, albeit decelerating, employment growth and increasing wages continue to support the resilience of the euro area economy.

• The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, remain tilted to the downside, but have become less pronounced

• While inflation developments remain subdued overall, there are some signs of a moderate increase in underlying inflation in line with expectations.

• The unfolding monetary policy measures are underpinning favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy.

• In particular, easier borrowing conditions for firms and households are supporting consumer spending and business investment.

• This will sustain the euro area expansion, the build-up of domestic price pressures and, thus, the robust convergence of inflation to the Governing Council's medium-term aim.

• Broadly in line with our expectations, the euro area economy continues to grow, though still with modest momentum.

• The domestic economy remains relatively resilient.

• Yet, global factors weigh on euro area growth.

• To be sure, there are tentative signs of stabilisation, forward-looking indicators have become in slightly more optimistic

• While uncertainties surrounding the global economic environment remain elevated, those related to trade tensions between the United States and China are receding

• Other risks, however, are still lingering or - as for the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the coronavirus - are a renewed source of concern.

• The overall moderate growth performance is delaying the pass-through from wage increases to prices and inflation developments remain subdued

• Doesn't see a new minimum exchange rate at the moment

• Negative rates have side effects, SNB trying to minimise those side effects.

• That gives us the freedom to maintain negative rates for longer and also to cut the rate if necessary.

• SNB conducts independent monetary policy, does not follow the ECB.

• Balance of risks is tilted to the downside.

• Needs to take international environment into account.

• SNB could still cut rates if needed.

• We still have a highly valued Swiss franc, important to keep expansive policy.

• SNB can intervene as necessary.

• Never intend to weaken the franc for any advantage.

• Growth has slowed markedly over the last year, both overseas and here.

• In the UK, the economy has barely grown since the first quarter of last year and the YoY growth in GDP has fallen below 1% for the first time since 2012

• It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy and also to possibly cut rates further

• Neutral level of interest rates may have fallen further over the last year or two

• Monetary policy space is limited

• Risk considerations favour a relatively prompt, aggressive response to downside risks

• Most likely outlook is a further period of subdued growth

• Brexit uncertainty may continue, weigh further on the economy

Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said she will be inclined to vote for a cut in interest rates, if the economy does not pick up this year as the central bank forecast in November.

The BoE's forecasts assumed that the Britain would move towards a deep free trade agreement with the EU this year, and that the recent global economic uncertainty quickly unwound.

"The risks to these assumptions are largely to the downside," Tenreyro said in a speech at the Resolution Foundation think tank in London.

"If uncertainty over the future trading arrangement or subdued global growth continue to weigh on demand, then my inclination is towards voting for a cut in Bank Rate in the near term," she continued.

Interest rates in the euro zone could remain historically low for years, but the European Central Bank's (ECB) ultra-loose monetary policy risks becoming counterproductive, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said.

"I do not have a crystal ball, but I cannot rule out that the current low interest rate environment could last another five years", Knot told Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant.

"This worries me, because temporarily low interest rates are something quite different from persistently low interest rates."

The Dutch central bank president said the current low rates lead to excessive risk taking among investors, while younger generations on the other hand might feel forced to keep increasing their savings.

"From a macro-economic perspective that would be undesirable," Knot said. "And it is also an example of how our low interest rate policy may eventually shoot itself in the foot. If people start saving more in response to the low interest rates, this will add further downward pressure on inflation."

"The balance between positive and negative effects of the low interest rates is shifting in the wrong direction", he told the paper.

• No risk for China economy to head to stagnation.

• Global economy outlook has become brighter than a few months ago.

• No change to view that Japan economy in moderate growth.

• Expect government stimulus package to have positive impact on prices.

• Will take into account govt stimulus package impact on economy at January rate review, quarterly forecast review.

• Can't deepen negative rates indefinitely as could affect financial institutions.

• Always need to weigh costs, benefits of negative rates and other policy options.

• Lowering super long bond yields could have negative impact on consumer sentiment.

• Must watch costs of prolonged low rates policy.

• Don't think financial intermediation is deteriorating now.

• Remains prepared to intervene in markets if needed

• Risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside

• Franc remains highly valued; FX market remains fragile

• Willing to intervene in FX market as necessary, while taking overall currency situation into consideration

• Negative rates and willingness to intervene should counteract attractiveness of the franc and ease upward pressure on the currency

• 2019 GDP forecast seen at around 1.0% (previously 0.5% to 1.0%)

• 2020 GDP forecast seen between 1.5% to 2.0%

• 2019 inflation forecast seen at 0.4% (unchanged)

• 2020 inflation forecast seen at 0.1% (previously 0.2%)

• 2021 inflation forecast seen at 0.5% (previously 0.6%)

• QE is "not on our agenda" at this point

• QE would only be considered should cash rate reach 0.25%

• There may come a point when QE would help but I "don't expect us to get there"

• Still expects economy to move in the right direction, albeit gradually

• QE would be considered if evidence accumulates that we were unlikely to meet policy goals

• Need evidence that moving away from, rather than towards, goals for full employment, inflation

• Board would then consider buying government bonds as only QE measure

• Would hope other public policy options were also on the agenda

• Use of all QE measures could create "inaction" bias for other policy makers

• Negative interest rates in Australia are extraordinarily unlikely

• We have no appetite" to make outright purchases of private sector assets as part of qe

• No need to provide extra liquidity through market operations

• International experience suggests QE does put downward pressure on both rates and exchange rate

• Would need to balance these positive effects with possible side-effects

• Would need to consider effects of bond buying on market functioning

• Strong evidence that various central bank liquidity measures worked during crisis

• Less convinced that other unconventional measures worked, jury still out

The European Central Bank's monetary policy will remain expansionary to sustain demand, while growth- friendly fiscal policies in the eurozone could help speed a return to price stability, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said.

"Eurozone inflation remains at an excessively low level and the risk of a de-anchoring of medium-long term expectations is appearing," Visco, who is governor of the Bank of Italy, said.

In September, euro zone inflation reached 0.8% year-on-year, its slowest pace since 2016.

The ECB last month announced a package of measures that includes restarting bond purchases at a rate of 20 billion euros (£17.26 billion) a month from November.

• BoJ must pay more attention than before to heightening risks, particular focus in on the output gap

• Economy sustaining momentum for hitting BoJ's price goal

• BoJ can combine, enhance tools which are rate cuts increase in asset buying and acceleration of base money

• Our policy is stimulating economy, but increased scrutiny is needed on cost of prolonged ultra low rate environment

• If Oil prices continue to fall and clearly push down Japan's inflation, that could impact inflation expectations

• No preconception on what policy decision will be made in October

• Investors risk aversion easing somewhat due to progress in US-China trade negotiations

• Excessive fall in super-long yields could hurt consumer sentiment by lowering returns of pension, insurance funds

• Overseas economic slowdown yet to affect Japan's domestic demand

• Structural forces unrelated to monetary policy are likely to keep rates low

• BOE unlikely to be able to cut rates as it did in the previous downturn

• BOE analysis rules out taking rates into negative territory

• Does not believe that a recession is overdue

• Not much room for the UK gilt yields to fall much further, so more QE unlikely to provide much more stimulus.

• BOE firepower is less than before previous recessions.

• If you change BOE 2% inflation target, could create higher perceived risk that it will be changed again in future.

• Helicopter money could put central bank independence at risk.

Calling economic and financial market signals for the economic outlook “mixed,” Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari signaled that he is likely to support further reductions in U.S. interest rates to support growth.

Trade tensions are making businesses cautious, he said, and the inversion of the U.S. yield curve that this week sent global stocks plummeting “is an indicator that people are nervous.” At the same time, the jobs market is strong, and so is consumer spending.

As Fed policymakers gear up for their September rate-setting meeting, he said, they will be assessing all of the data to make a decision. “I am leaning towards the camp of, ‘yes we need to give more stimulus to the economy, more support, we need to continue the expansion and not allow a recession to hit us,’” he said.